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At first, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a strong stance regarding Ukraine. After making statements of "significant ramifications" last August should Vladimir Putin persisted hindering ceasefire negotiations, Trump eventually imposed substantial restrictions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously hindered Putin's ability to finance his aggression in the region.

But, with his recently unveiled detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, which was developed by both nations' representatives lacking Ukrainian or European input, he has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Invasion

The former president's plan would effectively favor the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's democracy in jeopardy. Despite ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal in reality undermine that very autonomy. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business past, the former president seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, as if handing Russia a portion of Ukraine's territory will please the ruler. Yet, Russia's war is not simply about controlling a damaged region of economically weakened area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's clear intention to weaken it so it stops acts as an attractive model for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that Putin's growing dictatorship withholds them.

Land Giveaways

Although maintaining in place the currently separated oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would require Ukraine to give up the whole Donetsk region. Aside from favoring Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in exceeding a decade of conflict, this surrender would make Ukrainian defensive positions severely weakened.

This region is the site of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a essential impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these defenses, leaving Putin a unobstructed path to Kyiv if he eventually opt to renew the hostilities.

Defense Restrictions

Then, in a move that would make future fighting more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to cut the size of its troops from their current large number soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, the initiative places no similar limits on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's attempts to characterize the nation's chosen by the people government as extremists, Trump's proposal declares: "Any extremist belief system and activities must be rejected and banned." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal sets no requirement that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by allowing votes in Russia.

Security Assurances

To be sure, the plan makes Russia promise not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in law its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent agreements in the previous instances – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to recognize the nation's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of seized land in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should anyone trust Russia now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western defense commitments. While the plan threatens a "strong unified military response" if the Russian Federation restart its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the details range from fuzzy to troubling. The plan would not only deny the nation Nato membership but also preclude alliance nations from stationing military personnel on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the reassurance force, reportedly commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to stop Russia from restoring his weakened forces, restocking, and resuming aggression.

World Response

A separate supplementary accord apparently would provide the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "serious, planned, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an assault threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." This implies a armed reaction. Yet in contrast to a capable national defense – the nation's best defense against additional hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, like Trump, to react militarily to Russia's aggression, a response they have {not